Update, October 2026: This article was first published Sept. 29, 2025. Since then, Bill 9 became law (Ordinance 5909). Vacation rental use in apartment-zoned Minatoya list condos ends January 1, 2029 in West Maui and January 1, 2031 in South Maui and the rest of the county, unless a property is rezoned. Hotel-zoned condos are not affected. For current details see our Maui Bill 9 guide, the Minatoya list by area and hotel-zoned condos.
UHERO’s Key Forecast Highlights
UHERO predicts periods of contraction in payroll jobs, real GDP, and personal income, combined with higher inflation, marking a mild recession. The weakening U.S. economy, with slowing consumer spending and stagnant job growth outside healthcare, is a major driver. Globally, Canada’s recession from tariffs and Japan’s slowing recovery exacerbate risks. “UHERO continues to expect that a mild Hawaiʻi recession is imminent,” the report states.









