Bill 9 status, October 2026: Bill 9 is law (Ordinance 5909). Vacation rental use in apartment-zoned Minatoya list condos ends January 1, 2029 in West Maui and January 1, 2031 in South Maui and the rest of the county, unless a property is rezoned. Hotel-zoned condos are not affected. For current details see our Maui Bill 9 guide, the Minatoya list by area and hotel-zoned condos.
Maui Real Estate Mid-Year Review: June 2026 Housing Trends and Market Predictions
As we hit the midway point of 2026, the Maui real estate market is operating at a highly measured pace. The hyper-reactive, frenzied bidding wars of the early 2020s have firmly given way to a sophisticated, segmented landscape. Today’s market rewards patience, hyper-local data, and a deep understanding of evolving county regulations.
For mainland buyers looking for a legacy vacation home, local families seeking primary single-family homes, and seasoned real estate investors calculating their next play, broad island-wide generalizations no longer cut it. To truly understand where the value lies as we head into the summer of 2026, we must look beneath the headlines at the divergent paths of single-family homes and condominiums.
Here is your comprehensive June 2026 mid-year review of the trends defining the Valley Isle, backed by recent Realtors Association of Maui (RAM) data and on-the-ground local insights.
Single-Family Homes: Stabilized Values, Deliberate Volume
The single-family housing market across Maui is currently characterized by low transaction volume but highly resilient asset values. Total sales numbers have pulled back relative to last year's performance, but a lack of hyper-accelerated building keeps values on firm footing.
In April, the most recent month of data when this review was written, the island-wide median sales price for a single-family home was about $1.29 million, according to the REALTORS Association of Maui. Well-priced homes in established residential neighborhoods continue to sell.
Properties are staying on the market longer, with average marketing times creeping up past 138 days. Buyers are no longer rushing; they are taking their time to conduct extensive home inspections, review disclosures, and evaluate long-term holding costs at today's mortgage rates. With active inventory at about 442 listings island-wide in April, the single-family market had roughly 8 months of supply, which gives qualified buyers more leverage than they have had in years.
The Condo Market: Pricing Recalibration and Buyer Power
If you are looking at Maui condos, the script is entirely different. This segment is undergoing a major structural reset driven by a combination of high inventory and shifting regulatory sentiment.
Condo listings have expanded significantly, pushing active inventory to approximately 944 units island-wide. Island-wide, that was close to 16 months of supply in April. This flood of inventory has triggered noticeable price corrections. The median condo price has settled near $651,250, dropping significantly from its historical peaks and giving buyers incredible room to negotiate.
Condos that sold in April took an average of 169 days from listing to closing as buyers carefully sifted through their options.
The Policy Pulse: Navigating Bill 9 and the Minatoya List
You cannot discuss investing or buying real estate on Maui in 2026 without looking at the regulatory environment. The primary driver behind the massive influx of condo inventory and subsequent price softening is Ordinance No. 5909, widely known as Bill 9.
The Phase-Out Reality
Signed into law with the intent of converting vacation rentals into long-term housing for residents, Bill 9 systematically targets apartment-zoned (A-1 and A-2) complexes that historically operated as short-term transient vacation rentals via the legacy Minatoya List.
The countdown clock is ticking louder as we cross the mid-year mark. West Maui short-term rental rights are slated to sunset by December 31, 2028. Meanwhile, South Maui and all other areas face a final sunset deadline of December 31, 2030.
What About Rezoning?
Some owners have hoped that rezoning would preserve vacation rental use for their apartment-zoned buildings. For the current status of those efforts, see the rezoning section of our Minatoya list guide.
The Investor Pivot: Hotel-Zoned Stability
As a result of this legislation, investors who want vacation rental income are focusing on hotel-zoned properties in Maui County's H-M, H-1 and H-2 hotel districts.
Condominiums in areas like Wailea, Makena, and select oceanfront luxury pockets of Kaanapali are holding their premium valuations. Because hotel zoning allows short-term rentals and is not part of the Bill 9 phase-out, they remain sought after by mainland luxury buyers looking for turnkey vacation assets. Conversely, apartment-zoned units on the Minatoya List are seeing major discounts, creating distinct opportunities for long-term rental investors or lifestyle buyers looking for a primary island home.
Regional Spotlights: Maui's Summer 2026 Hotspots
Kīhei: The Engine of Transaction Volume
South Maui’s Kīhei is Maui’s busiest condo market by number of sales. Buyers here are being selective and checking each building’s zoning to make sure a condo purchase fits how they plan to use it.
Wailea & Makena: Luxury Resilience
The ultra-luxury market tells two stories simultaneously. While the number of sales is smaller by nature, prices for single-family estates remain firmly in premium territory, and many buyers at this level are less sensitive to interest rates than buyers in other parts of the market.
Upcountry & The North Shore: High Demand, Low Supply
For buyers seeking acreage and a quieter lifestyle, regions like Kula, Makawao, and Paia remain incredibly competitive. Single-family values in parts of Upcountry have held up better than the island as a whole. If you want to buy a primary home here, be prepared to act when a quality home comes on the market.
Market Predictions for the Second Half of 2026
As we look toward the fall and winter, our decades of on-the-ground experience point to three distinct market trends:
- Continued Condo Price Adjustments: Expect sellers of apartment-zoned condos to offer more creative incentives (such as credit toward HOA dues or interest rate buy-downs) as they compete against high inventory levels.
- A Premium on Due Diligence: Buyers are paying closer attention to insurance costs, flood zones, association reserves and special assessments. Properties with clean disclosures and well-funded associations will stand out.
- The "Thoughtful" Buyer Domain: The current climate is defined by deliberation, and the era of impulse buying is over. The remainder of 2026 will belong to educated buyers who look at real estate as a multi-decade asset rather than a short-term flip.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. Can I still legally rent out a Maui condo on a short-term basis?
Yes, if the condo is in a hotel district (H-M, H-1 or H-2) or holds a valid county permit. Apartment-zoned properties on the Minatoya list can still be rented short-term through December 31, 2028 in West Maui and December 31, 2030 in South Maui and the rest of the county, unless they are rezoned.
2. Is it a buyer's or a seller's market on Maui right now?
It depends entirely on the asset class. With over 15 months of supply, the condo market heavily favors buyers, offering excellent negotiation leverage. The single-family home market is more balanced, at roughly 8 months of supply, so pricing is steadier but sellers still need to be realistic.
3. How long should I expect the buying process to take in 2026?
Because inventory has expanded, the average property that sold this spring took 138 to 169 days from listing to closing. Once an offer is officially accepted, a typical escrow cycle utilizing traditional financing takes roughly 45 to 60 days to close.
Turn Market Insights into Your Competitive Advantage
Navigating a bifurcated real estate market requires more than access to the MLS, it demands deep, localized expertise, an intricate understanding of county zoning laws, and a strategic approach to due diligence. Whether you are looking to divest a condo asset, secure a generational single-family home Upcountry, or deploy capital into a protected resort property, timing and positioning are everything.
Don't leave your real estate goals to chance in a shifting landscape. Contact The Maui Property Team at Compass at 808-217-8832 to explore your options and secure your position in Maui real estate with confidence.
