The real estate market in Maui County is experiencing notable shifts, particularly in the condominium sector. The median sales price for a condo has dropped to $675,000, marking the lowest level in two years. Additionally, condo resales volume has declined, showing double-digit percentage drops in eight of the last nine months.

Impact of Proposed Vacation Rental Phase-Out

This market shift comes in the wake of Mayor Richard Bissen’s announcement on May 2, 2024, regarding a proposed bill to phase out approximately 7,000 vacation rental units in apartment-zoned districts. This bill is still under review by the Maui County Council, and the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) is expected to release an impact study in the first quarter of 2025.

 

According to UHERO economics professor Carl Bonham, the phase-out will likely have mixed effects. However, he emphasized that removing 30% of visitor accommodations in 2025 could negatively impact tourism, spending, and employment in sectors like food service and retail. The Maui County Council is also considering conducting its own study to assess the bill’s potential consequences.

Trends in Maui Condo Resales

The downward trend in condo resales volume became evident in August 2024 following earlier declines in May, June, and July. Despite a period of stability, median condo sales prices took a sharp downturn:

  • November 2024: Prices fell 19.7% from $890,000 to $715,000.
  • January 2025: Prices slid 15.6% from $800,000 to $675,000.
  • The last time median condo prices were in the mid-$600,000 range was in January 2023 ($657,500).
  • During the COVID-19 pandemic, condo median prices in Maui County ranged between $556,990 and $695,000.

Monthly Condo Sales Volume Comparison

Market statistics reveal a continued decline in condo sales volume when compared year-over-year:

  • May: 91 sales (2023) → 76 sales (2024) (-16.5%)
  • June: 93 sales (2023) → 59 sales (2024) (-36.6%)
  • July: 76 sales (2023) → 64 sales (2024) (-15.8%)
  • August: 101 sales (2023) → 66 sales (2024) (-34.7%)
  • September: 67 sales (2023) → 50 sales (2024) (-25.4%)
  • October: 62 sales (2023) → 64 sales (2024) (+3.2%)
  • November: 53 sales (2023) → 49 sales (2024) (-7.5%)
  • December: 94 sales (2023) → 53 sales (2024) (-43.6%)
  • January: 93 sales (2023) → 53 sales (2024) (-43%)

Potential Risks for Investors

If this downward trend continues, many investors could face financial challenges. Properties purchased at higher prices could become “underwater”, meaning their market value falls below the remaining mortgage balance. This could create difficulties for owners looking to sell, as they may not be able to fully repay their mortgage debt.

Single-Family Home Market Trends

While the condo market is facing headwinds, the single-family home sector in Maui County remains relatively stable:

  • January 2025 sales: 58 homes sold, a 1.8% increase from January 2024.
  • Median single-family home price: $1,187,500, down 11.6% year-over-year.

Expert Insights on Market Stability

“Maui’s housing market is experiencing some fluctuations,” said Lynette Pendergast, president of the local real estate association. “While shifting prices present opportunities for buyers, long-term stability will depend on increasing inventory, addressing affordability, and supporting smart growth initiatives that align with Maui’s unique character. By fostering collaboration among developers, policymakers, and the community, we can create housing opportunities that benefit both current residents and future generations while preserving the balance that makes Maui such a special place to call home.”