As we approach the 2024 election wonder how it might impact the housing market. Let's explore this further. 

Years in which elections take place often coincide with periods of sluggishness in the market.

Election Years and Market Slowdowns

During the autumn season each year,​ there is usually a decline in the number of houses sold due to trends. However​ in years with elections,​ this decrease tends to be more noticeable. According to information from BTIG​ in the month before Election Day,​​​​​​​​​ home sales often experience a than-usual decrease (see graph below).

The reason for this phenomenon lies in uncertainty—many potential buyers and sellers prefer to hold off on making decisions until they have an understanding of what lies ahead. In the real estate sector, specifically, larger purchases seem to be delayed when the future is uncertain. 

This year's Redfin survey found that 23 percent of aspiring first-time home purchasers are delaying their plans until after the election—a chunk of nearly one-fourth of first-time buyers deciding to wait it out probably because of the prevailing sense of uncertainty in the air. 

The Post-Election Rebound

Sales don't vanish in the air. Rather gets postponed temporarily as a common trend post-election when the market tends to revive itself with a noticeable historical pattern of home sales bouncing back about 82% of the time after a presidential election year wraps up (see chart below).

Once the election outcomes are clear and the initial uncertainty fades away into the background noise of life routine again both buyers and sellers regain their confidence in the market which usually results in an uptick in real estate transactions. 

What We Can Anticipate in the Year 2025 

As per the trend we've observed before is that we might see a surge in activity post-election next year as well. We're even seeing some forecasts pointing towards a rise in home sales for the year 2025. The market trends for this year suggest that around 4 (see graph below). 

The Main Takeaway

During election years there may be a slowdown in the housing market; however this usually only lasts for a period of time and many of these postponed sales tend to come back the following year after the election cycle concludes. If you are considering making a move and holding off due to market conditions it’s good to keep in mind that the market is anticipated to pick up pace in the near future.